Long-term forecasts

JUNE 19

JUNE 14

JUNE 01

The forecast of types of ice conditions on 7 areas of the Arctic seas for June, 2017.

At the time of drawing up the forecast in all areas of the Arctic seas the heavy type of ice conditions is observed.
The expected development of types of ice conditions in June, 2017 is given in table 1. The main feature of development of ice conditions in June is:
– improvement of ice conditions in a southwest part of the Kara Sea in the first half of June and transition from heavy type to an average since the second decade of June,
– preservation of heavy type of ice conditions during the whole June in a northeast part of the Kara Sea, in the Laptev Sea and East Siberian,
– improvement of ice conditions in a southwest part of the Chukchi Sea in the second half of June and transition from heavy type to an average since the third decade of June.

Table 1. The forecast of types of ice conditions on 7 areas of the Arctic seas for June, 2017.

The forecast of types of ice conditions on 7 areas of the Arctic seas for June, 2017 is provided on figures 1-3.

The forecast is developed in department of the ice mode and forecasts of AANII
Manager. lab. Yulin A. V.
Veda. инж. Sharatunova M. V.
June 1, 2017.

FIG. 1. The 1-th decade of JUNE

FIG. 2. The 2-th decade of JUNE

FIG. 3. The 3-th decade of JUNE

MAY 24

Long-term forecast of terms of fast ice breaking in the central part of the Ob’ Bay (from cape Kamenniy to Sabetta) in spring 2017

The present forecast of terms of fast ice breaking is developed basing on meteorological data, analysis of multiyear observations of development of ice processes in settlements Kamenniy (1952-1992), Tadibeyakha (1951-1991), Tambei (1965-1989), data of episodic expedition sea ice thickness observations and satellite images during the last years.

1. Review of ice conditions during the previous cold period 2016-2017

During the autumn period 2016, based on information from satellite images, appearance of floating ice along the western coast of the Ob’ Bay to the north of cape Kamenniy was fixed in first ten-day period of October, corresponding to norms. Further, ice processes developed a little bit later than in average: ice near the cape Kamenniy appeared in first days of November, floating ice in Sabetta was fixed in the middle of first ten-day period of November.

It must be taking into account, that recurring flaw Ob’-Yenisei polynya prevents quick formation of fast ice. Southern boundary of the polynya (northern edge of the fast ice) spreads abeam the cape Kamenniy at 20 November. The water area from one coast to another abeam the point Tadibeyakha totally froze in the middle of third ten-day period of November 20th. In the area around Tambei and Sabetta entire fast ice freezing was not observed, because of boundary of polynya shifted or to the north or to the south during the entire cold period (from December to April). The most northern position of the polynya boundary was fixed 29 December 2016 at 71°86" northern latitude.

Ice thickness in the Ob’ Bay grew during the entire cold period. According to the maritime classification, ice in the area around cape Kamenniy and along the coast near Tadibeyakha reached stage of medium first-year ice (70 cm) in the beginning of January (normal – first ten-day period of December). Stage of thick first-year ice (more than 120 cm) in Tadibeyakha was started in the middle of February, and near the cape Kamenniy - at the end of March (normal – third ten-day period of January). Thus, ice thickness in this region of the Ob’ Bay grew slower in comparison with normal.

2. Long-term meteorological forecast for June 2017

- Long-term meteorological forecast for June 2017 in the southern part of the Ob’ Bay

Basing on the analysis of peculiarities of atmosphere processes during the cold period from October 2016 through 15 May 2017 the most probable tendencies of its development in future were determined and long-term meteorological forecast for June 2017 in the southern part of the Ob’ Bay was developed.

The weather in June will be mainly influenced by ridges in rear part of passed cyclones. Air fluxes will be unstable by direction with some prevalence of south-eastern and south-western directions with short-term deviations to the north-east and north-west. Prevailing monthly air temperature will be in average insignificantly above the normal.

During the period of 1-15 June expected predominant air temperature will be +2 - +6 °C. Short-term increases will reach +8- +13 °C. Short-term decreases of air temperature in the beginning of the period will down to 0 - -2°C.

During the period of 16-30 June predominant air temperature is expected to be within +4-+9°C. Short-term increases will reach +13 - +18°C. Short-term decreases will down to 0 - +2°C.

Forecasted prevailing air temperature values and its average increases and decreases within the periods are presented in the Table 1.

Table 1 – Forecasted air temperature and directions of air fluxes in June 2017 in the southern part of the Ob’ Bay

Period of forecasts

Air temperature (°C)

Prevailed direction of air fluxes

/with deviations/

Predominant

Increase

(maximum average)

Decrease

(minimum average)

1-15 June

+2...+6

short-term to

+8...+13

short-term to

0...-2

SW/NW

16-30 June

+4...+9

short-term to

+13...+18

short-term to

0...+2

SE/NE

  • Long-term meteorological forecast for June 2017 in the northern part of the Ob’ Bay

Taking into account peculiarities of development of atmosphere processes during the cold period from October 2016 to May 2017, the mostly probable tendencies of its development in future were established and long-term meteorological forecast for June 2017 for the northern part of the Ob’ Bay was developed.

In June meteorological conditions will be influenced by ridges in rear part of passed cyclones. Air fluxes will be unstable by direction with some prevalence of south-eastern directions with short-term deviations to the north-east and north-west. Prevailing monthly air temperature will be in average insignificantly above the normal.

During the period of 1-15 June expected predominant air temperature will be 0 - +5 °C. Short-term increases will reach +7- +10 °C. Short-term decreases of air temperature at the north of water area will down to -2 - -5°C.

During the period of 16-30 June predominant air temperature is expected to be within +4-+8°C. Short-term increases will reach +10 - +14°C. Short-term decreases will down to -1- +3°C.

Forecasted prevailing air temperature values and its average increases and decreases within the periods are presented in the Table 1.

Table 1 – Forecasted air temperature and directions of air fluxes in June 2017 in the northern part of the Ob’ Bay

Period of forecasts

Air temperature (°C)

Prevailed direction of air fluxes

/with deviations/

Predominant

Increase

(maximum average)

Decrease

(minimum average)

1-15 June

0...+5

short-term to

+7...+10

short-term to

-2...-5

SW-SE/NW

16-30 June

+4...+8

short-term to

+10...+14

short-term to

-1...+3

SE/NE

3. Long-term forecast of terms of fast ice breaking in the central part of the Ob’ Bay (from cape Kamenniy to Sabetta)

The present forecast of terms of fast ice breaking was developed on a basis of information obtained during the observations of ice processes development in the research area.

The ice in the central part of the Ob’ Bay is breaking under the complex influence of hydrometeorological factors. The main of them, influenced on breaking and drifting out the ice in spring, are: stable transition the air temperature to positive values, wind direction, solar radiation, river runoff, water temperature, velocity of discharge current.

Resulting from the forecasted meteorological conditions, set force above, shifting the edge of recurring polynya southward to the latitude of Salmanovskoye deposit is expected not earlier than the first ten-day period of June. It must be taken into account that bands of not broken fast ice with width up to 10 km often remain along the coasts.

In accordance to multiyear data in the region around polar station Tadibeyakha, breaking the alongshore band of fast ice happens in first ten-day period of July. However, in accordance to meteorological forecast in this region, breaking the alongshore fast ice near Tadibeyakha will happen also earlier than normal – in the second ten-day period of June. Consequently, breaking the fast ice near the eastern shore of the Ob’ Bay in the area of Salmanovskoye oil and gas deposit is expected in the third ten-day period of June. Breaking the fast ice in the area of cape Kamenniy is expected earlier than average multiyear – at the end of first – beginning of second ten-day period of June.

In a case of significant difference of meteorological conditions from the forecasted above, terms of breaking of fast ice will be corrected.

Date of long-term forecasting – 18 May 2017.

Forecasts are developed by:

Head of the Meteorological forecasts laboratory – V.V. Ivanov

Ice forecast – head of the laboratory in the Hydrological information and calculations department of the Center “Sever” AARI – Nalimov Yu.V., leading engineers Korelskaya N.L., Belyaeva N.G.

Leader of the Center “Sever” S.V. Brestkin

MAY 18

APRIL 28

APRIL 07

1. The short review of ice conditions in estuarial areas of the rivers of the Arctic zone of Siberia from October, 2016 to March, 2017.
Process of freezing took place in mouths of the rivers of the Arctic zone of Siberia during the end of September - the beginning of October. Floating ice has been noted in mouths of the rivers of the Kara Sea from October 18 to October 29, the Laptev Sea from September 30 to October 13, the East Siberian Sea from October 13 to October 17.
Estuarial areas of the rivers of the basin of the Kara Sea.
Steady emergence of floating ice has been noted after norm from 3 days (item Igarka) to 17 days (the item of Sopochnaya the Hag). Terms of a freeze-up are noted after norm from 4 days (the item. Guard) to 19 days (the item. Novyi Port). Period duration with floating ice has made of 1 day in the item. Guard and Tazovskoye up to 17 days in the item. New Port.
Ice thickness at the end of December, 2016 were observed more norm in points Dudinka and Igarka on the 8-13th. In points Salekhard, New Port and Tazovskoye - about norm. In points of Sopochnaya the Hag and Guard - are less than norm on 12-37 cm. For the end of March, 2017 of thickness of ice there was following: in points Salekhard, New Port, Dudinka - is more than norm on 8-18 cm, in Tazovskoye's points, Igarka, Guard and Sopochnaya the Hag - is less than norm on 5-36 cm.
Estuarial areas of the rivers of the basin of the Laptev Sea.
In estuarial areas of the rivers of the basin of the Laptev Sea steady emergence of floating ice is noted in the terms close to mean annual, except point Ust-Olenyok where floating ice has appeared for 8 days after norm. The freeze-up is noted after norm from 2 days (the item of Tyumeti) to 8 days (item Ust-Olenyok).
Period duration with floating ice has made 11-15 days, except the item Ust-Olenyok where floating ice was observed within 4 days.
Ice thickness at the end of December, 2016 were observed less norm on 4-27 cm except the item Kyusyur where thickness of ice is noted more norm on 10 cm. For the end of March, 2017 of thickness less norm on 11-47 cm is universal.
Estuarial areas of the rivers of the basin of the East Siberian Sea.
On estuarial sections of the Kolyma Rivers and Indigirka floating ice and a freeze-up have been noted after norm: floating ice for 8-10 days, a freeze-up for 9-13 days. Period duration with floating ice has made 5-6 days. Ice thickness at the end of December, 2016 were observed less norm on 22-24 cm. At the end of March, 2017 - there is less norm on 32-41 cm.

2. The long-term forecast of thickness of ice for the end of April and terms of opening of lower reaches and mouths of the rivers of Siberia for spring of 2017.
Opening of an estuarial part of the large rivers will take place at the end of May – June. In relation to average long-term values terms of opening of ice in estuarial parts of the rivers of basins of the Karsky and East Siberian seas and the Laptev Sea is expected before norm, or close to norm.
Ice thickness for the end of April in east part of the Arctic are predicted less mean annual values. In the western part - it is less also more norm.
Estuarial area of the rivers of the basin of the Kara Sea.
In estuarial areas of the large rivers of the basin of the Kara Sea of ice thickness at the end of April less mean annual values to 32 cm, except points Salekhard, Novyi Port and Dudinka where thickness are expected more norm to 18 cm are expected. The beginning of an ice drift is expected before norm: in an estuarial part of the Ob River for 4 days, in an estuarial part of the Taz River for 8 days, in an estuarial part of the Yenisei River for 3-4 days (except the item Dudinka where the ice drift is expected in the terms meeting standard).
Estuarial area of the rivers of the basin of the Laptev Sea.
In estuarial areas of the large rivers of the basin of the Laptev Sea at the end of April ice thickness less norm to 49 cm are expected. The beginning of an ice drift is expected before norm: in an estuarial part of the Olenyok River for 1-4 days, in an estuarial part of the Lena River for 1-2 days, in an estuarial part of the Yana River for 2 days.
Estuarial area of the rivers of the basin of the East Siberian Sea.
In estuarial sections of the Indigirka Rivers and Kolyma thickness of ice are expected up to 49 cm less norm. The beginning of an ice drift is expected before norm in an estuarial part of the river Kolyma for 1 day. On the Indigirka River the ice drift is expected in the terms meeting standard.

The expected ice thickness for the end of April, 2017.
on lower reaches and estuarial areas of the rivers of Siberia

The expected terms of opening of lower reaches and mouths of the rivers of Siberia in the spring of 2017.


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MARCH 22

B U L L E T I N

of "Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2017"

The predictive bulletin includes general information about the expected ice conditions in the Russian Arctic seas in the first half of navigation (June-August), 2017. For an assessment of intensity of the expected development of ice conditions, the forecast is compared to mean annual values (the norm calculated from 1970 for 2010).

Kara Sea

The area of the Novozemelsky ice massif in June-August is expected 18-35% less than medium long-term values (fig. 3): the third decade of June – 40%, norm of 75%; the third decade of July – 5%, norm of 34%; the first decade of August – 0%, norm of 18%.

In the first half of navigation in a southwest part of the Kara Sea the ligth type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected.

The area of the Severozemelsky ice massif in July-August is expected 28-29% less than medium long-term values (fig. 3): July – 40%, norm of 68%; August – 10%, norm of 39%.

In the first half of navigation in a northeast part of the Kara Sea the ligth type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected.

Breaking of solder in a coastal part of Vilkitsky Strait is expected for 10 days before mean annual term – on July 20, norm on July 30.

Laptev Sea

The area of the Taimyr ice massif in July-August is expected 5-11% less than medium long-term values (fig. 3): July – 60%, norm of 71%; August – 38%, norm of 43%.

In the first half of navigation in the western part of the sea the medium type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected.

The area of the Yansky ice massif in July-August is expected 10-15% less than medium long-term values (fig. 3): July – 62%, norm of 77%; August – 6%, norm of 16%.

In the first half of navigation in east part of the sea the ligth type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected.

Breaking of solder along the coast in the western part of the sea is expected for 5-10 days before medium long-term terms – on July 10, norm on July 17, in east part of the sea for 10 days before medium long-term terms – on July 5, norm – on July 15.

East Siberian Sea

The area of the Novosibirsk ice massif in July-August is expected 10-13% less than medium long-term values (fig. 3): July – 71%, norm of 81%, August – 20%, norm of 33%.

In the first half of navigation in the western part of the sea the ligth type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected.

The area of the Aion ice massif in July-August is expected 5% less than medium long-term values (fig. 3): July – 82%, norm of 87%, August – 61%, norm of 66%.

In the first half of navigation in east part of the sea the medium type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected.

Breaking of solder in a throat of Chaun Bay (on the site Aion-Valkarkay) is expected for 7 days before medium long-term value – on June 25, norm on July 2.

In the first half of August the central type of provision of solid ices is most probable.

Chukchi Sea

The area of the Vrangelevsky ice massif in July-August is expected 5-7% less than medium long-term values: July – 31% norm of 36%; August – 5%, norm of 12% (fig. 3).

Breaking of solder on the coastal site the cape Yakan – the cape Vankarem is expected for 10 days of earlier medium long-term terms – on June 30, norm on July 10.

In the first half of navigation in a southwest part of the sea the ligth type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected.

Thus, in the first half of navigation in the Arctic seas the following prevailing type of ice conditions (fig. 4) is expected:

- ligth – in Barents, Karsky, east part of Laptev, the western part East Siberian and in Chukchi the seas;

- medium – in the western part of Laptev and in east part East Siberian the seas;

- realization of heavy type on water areas of the Arctic seas in the first half of navigation isn't expected.

March 21, 2017.

FIG. 1

FIG. 2

FIG. 3

FIG. 4