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Long-term forecasts

 

SEPTEMBER 04

This bulletin contains a long-term forecast of the freezing time of the estuary regions of major rivers in Siberia in the fall of 2020.
More detailed information on expected freezing dates for the water bodies indicated in the bulletin can be provided to interested consumers on individual requests.
1. SUMMARY OF ICE CONDITIONS IN THE ESTUARY REGIONS OF RIVERS OF THE ARCTIC ZONE OF SIBERIA FROM APRIL TO JUNE 2020
In the estuary regions of the rivers of the Kara Sea basin, the ice thickness at the end of April was 8-47 cm less than the average long-term values. On the Ob River (Salekhard village) at the end of April, measurements were not made due to the danger of getting on the ice. The height of snow on the ice at the end of April was observed: on the river. Taz 36-50 cm, on the river. Yenisei from ˂5-25 cm. On the river. Ob at the end of April the height of snow was not noted. On the estuary sections of the river. The Yenisei appearance of shades was noted from April 30 to May 10, ice movements - from May 2 to 12. Congestion of ice was observed on the Yenisei River (Igarka village) from May 6 to 10. The edges, movements and congestion of ice on the mouth sections of the Ob and Taz rivers were not noted. Spring ice drift and clearing from the ice on the mouth sections of the Ob, Taz and Yenisei rivers began much earlier than the average summer dates of 12-22 and 9-22 days, respectively. The duration of the spring ice drift on the Taz, Ob and Yenisei rivers ranged from 3 to 18 days.
The thickness of the ice at the end of April on the mouth of the Yenisei River (p. Sopochnaya Karga) is noted 30 cm less than the average long-term value, on the mouth of the Ob River (p. New Port) 1 cm more than the average long-term. The height of snow on the ice at the end of April was 40-49 cm in the village of New Port and 15-19 cm in the village of Sopochnaya Karga. The appearance of shackles has been noted in the Ob Bay since May 19. The hacking of solder and purification of the estuary sections of the Ob and Yenisei rivers occurred within a time frame much earlier than the average for 13-20 and 20-21 days, respectively. The duration of the ice drift in the Ob Bay was 8 days, in the Yenisei Bay, solder hacking and purification occurred on the same day.

In the estuary regions of the Laptev Sea basin, the ice thickness at the end of April was noted to be 4-37 cm less than the average long-term values ​ ​ on the rivers Yana, Lena, Olenek (Tyumeti). On the river. Olenek (Ust-Olenek) ice thickness was noted 1cm more than the average values. The height of snow on the ice at the end of April in the estuary of the Lena River was ˂5-35 cm, on the Olenek River - 16-50 cm, on the Yana River - 36-50 cm. On the estuary sections of the rivers of the Laptev Sea basin, the appearance of shades was noted on the Lena and Olenek rivers (Ust-Olenek) - in the third decade of May Eng. On the Yana River, no lands were observed. On the rivers - Lena (p. Kyusur) and Olenek (p. Tyumeti) in the third decade of May, the autopsy process was accompanied by the formation of congestion. Spring ice drift and clearing from the ice everywhere began in time, earlier than the average long-term by 4-9 and 6-11 days, respectively. The duration of ice drift on the rivers was: Olenek from 3 to 8 days, Lena from 5 to 6 days, Yana - 4 days.
In the estuary regions of the rivers of the East Siberian Sea basin, the ice thickness at the end of April was 23-53 cm less than the average long-term values. At the end of April on the Indigirka River, the snow height on the ice was 21-25 cm, on the Kolyma River - 36-50 cm. Zakrain on the estuary sections of the rivers of the East Siberian Sea Sea basin were noted at the end of the second to the beginning of the third decade of May. Advances on the Indigirka River were observed in the third decade of May, congestion - May 30. Congestion was not observed on the mouth section of the Kolyma River. Spring ice drift and clearing from the ice on the Indigirka and Kolyma rivers began earlier than the average term of 8 and 9 days, respectively. The duration of the ice drift was: 2 days on the estuary section of the Indigirki River and 5 days on the Kolyma River.
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Table 1.1 shows the ice thicknesses at the end of April and the timing of opening of the lower and estuary regions of the rivers of Siberia in the spring of 2020.

2. LONG-TERM FORECAST OF FREEZING TIME OF LOWER AND RIVER MOUTHS OF SIBERIA IN AUTUMN 2020
Table 2.1 shows the expected dates for the steady appearance of floating ice in the estuary regions of the rivers of the Arctic zone of Siberia.
Basin of the Kara Sea. At the mouths of the Ob, Taz and Yenisei rivers, in the Ob Bay and in the Yenisei Bay, floating ice will appear at a time close to the average long-term values ​ ​ with a slight tendency to the late side (1-4 days).
Laptev Sea Basin. At the mouths of the Olenek, Lena and Yana rivers, steady ice formation is also expected in time close to the average years, with a slight trend in the late direction (2-4 days).
Basin of the East Siberian Sea. At the mouths of the Indigirka and Kolyma rivers, steady ice formation is expected in a time period close to the average long-term.

 

TABL1

TABL 2

 

AUGUST 24

FIRURE 2

JUNE 19

B U L L E T E N
"June refinement of long-term ice forecasts
for Arctic seas on the first half of navigation
(June-August) 2020 "

 

Total estimate of expected Arctic sea ice conditions in the first half of navigation (June-August) 2020

 

Date the page was created: 2013-03-15
Last modified: 2020-09-05